The most important positive of India's stealth bull market is earnings growth across different sectors, explains Debashis Basu.
India's prices are rising faster than many of its emerging market peers. The country's inflation print for May at 4.25 per cent is a marked reduction from the levels seen in May 2022 (7.04 per cent). However, even though the inflation rate remains within the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 per cent, with a 2 per cent margin on either side, it continues to be higher than China, Russia, and Brazil.
The frequent use of these assault rifles by terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir, according to experts, is a consequence of the US Army leaving behind arms and ammunition while pulling out from Afghanistan in 2021 and is a cause of concern due to the more lethal nature of the steel bullets used.
The move, which could come as a surprise to many investors, was a nod to better prospects for economy and labor market
Among the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Wipro, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv and ICICI Bank were the major gainers. Power Grid, Nestle, Asian Paints and Hindustan Unilever were among the laggards.
'The FY2023 inflation outcome is likely to exceed the RBI's current forecast by a wide margin.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said the recent interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank was not surprising for her but the timing was, asserting that the rising cost of funds will not impact the government's planned infrastructure investments. For the first time since August 2018, RBI had on May 4 delivered a blunt 40 basis points increase in key repo rate to 4.40 per cent, and also hiked the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent after an unscheduled meeting of the rate setting panel, citing increased inflation pressures following the Ukraine war and the resultant spike in crude oil prices. Retail inflation printed at 6.9 per cent in March and the April reading is forecast to top 7.7 per cent.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
Stock markets will be driven by quarterly earnings by index majors, global trends and the RBI's interest rate decision this week after digesting news on budget proposals and US Federal policy outcome, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also dictate trends in equities. "On the domestic front, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting is scheduled from February 6-8.
The new Samvat 2080 is viewed as a year of hope for industrial and precious metals. A key reason is the expectation of US interest rates peaking, followed by a reduction in the coming months. Regarding crude oil, its trajectory depends more on how the situation unfolds in West Asia.
tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
Hero MotoCorp was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, spurting 4.46 per cent. IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Vedanta, SBI, M&M, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, HDFC and HDFC Bank too rose up to 3.63 per cent.
From the Sensex basket, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Larsen & Toubro and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the biggest laggards. Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid, Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank and Maruti were the major gainers.
Market breadth is positive with 942 advances and 196 declines.
The trend was visible in the early trade on Thursday as investors indulged in trimming their bets after the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's September meeting indicated a possible rate hike this year.
India will drive growth in the Asia-Pacific (Apac) region as the growth engine is likely to shift from China to South and Southeast Asia in the coming years, S&P Global Ratings said in a report on Tuesday. The rating agency's report projected China's growth to slow down to 4.6 per cent by 2026 from an estimated 5.4 per cent in 2023. India is likely to clock 7 per cent economic growth from 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023.
Gold prices have surged nearly 18 per cent, so far, in the calendar year 2022 (CY22) to around $2,050 per ounce against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and there is more headroom over the next few months, believe analysts at Goldman Sachs who expect the yellow metal to become costlier by another 25 per cent to $2,500 an ounce by the year-end. Goldman Sachs, earlier, had raised its 12-month gold price forecast to $2,150 per ounce considering that an impending US growth slowdown would lead to increased concerns of a US recession and incentivise 300 tonnes of inflows into gold ETFs. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine tensions, Goldman Sachs had suggested the resultant rally in commodities could deteriorate the developed market (DM) growth-inflation mix, increase concerns of a American recession, and push gold ETF inflows to 600 tonnes and, in turn, lift gold prices to $2,350 an ounce in 12 months.
Bank Nifty pared all its intraday gains to end over 1% lower led by losses in BoB, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and Bank of India
The rate hike in the future is set to be 'calibrated and cautious'.
'If the Maha Vikas Aghadi thinks that they have won 30 (Lok Sabha) seats and that would translate to winning 180 assembly seats they would be living in a fool's paradise.'
'The main worry is lots of new investors coming into the markets in order to make a quick buck/easy money.' 'Those things are happening again and have happened in the past as well.' 'All that has led to problems.' 'We are not there yet, but will get there eventually.'
Benchmark equity indices climbed nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday on buying in HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries. Investors are eyeing the two important events lined up ahead -- the interim budget and the US Fed interest rate decision -- to derive further cues from. Recovering all the early lost ground, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 612.21 points or 0.86 per cent to settle at 71,752.11.
US's terrible political and economic leadership will ultimately cost the dollar its value. India must act early to avoid being dragged down, suggests R Jagannathan.
'Investors with higher risk appetite and longer horizon (more than one year) can invest in longer-duration funds like corporate bond funds, long-duration funds and gilt funds for maximum gain.'
Equity markets rallied after softer-than-expected inflation data in the US and UK rekindled hopes of the end of the rate-hiking cycle by major central banks. The soft inflation reading drove down bond yields and the US dollar, whetting the appetite for risky assets. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4.5 per cent after topping 5 per cent less than a month ago.
'We expect the bull-market phase to still persist, but now led by large-caps which offer better valuation and benefit from FII inflows.'
'We expect continued pressure on midcaps, but any sharp correction looks unlikely from here on.'
Rupee hits 2-month low against dollar on US rate hike fears.
Fed is still concerned about weak export growth.
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, Infosys, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, HCL Technologies and Axis Bank were the biggest gainers. Tech Mahindra and Bajaj Finance were the laggards.
Investors' wealth fell by Rs 2.89 lakh crore in two days of market fall, with the BSE Sensex tumbling 796 points on Wednesday, amid weak global market trends ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Fresh foreign fund outflows and caution ahead of a host of interest rate decisions from global central banks also added to the overall bearish trend. Besides, the US Fed meeting, the BoE (Bank of England) and the BoJ (Bank of Japan) are also scheduled to meet this week.
'It makes sense to have gold in one's portfolio keeping the political and economic risks of 2024 in mind.'
At its last policy review, the central bank left policy repo rates on hold at 7.25 percent, tying future cuts to inflation outlook.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investments in the domestic debt market surged in December, marking a 77-month high, that is, since July 2017. According to market participants, this significant uptick in FPI inflows can be attributed to the post-domestic policy outcome and the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance at the December policy. FPI inflows into debt stood at Rs 18,393 crore in December against Rs 14,106 crore in November, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited.
Among the Sensex firms, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro and JSW Steel were the major gainers during the morning deals. Nestle, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank ITC were among the laggards.
Trends in the global markets, trading activity of foreign investors and announcement of domestic macroeconomic data are the major factors that would drive investors' sentiment in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Benchmark indices had a record-breaking rally in the past week driven by impressive GDP data. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for Mahashivratri.
There was no smooth surge in middle class prosperity for foreign businesses to tap into because of the Indian economy was mismanaged, argues Debashis Basu.
Analysts remain bullish on the road ahead for the equity markets, but warn against volatility on account of domestic and global cues. The upcoming Lok Sabha elections back home and the interest rate trajectory of the US Federal Reserve, they said, will be the two most important factors that the markets will keep a tab on. That apart, the valuation of the Indian markets, they feel, will also be eyed in context of how global peers are performing.
Sensex,Nifty to remain under pressure through the week.
Strong currency and sagging oil prices are spooking policymakers.
'The more educated a young person is, the higher the chances of him or her remaining unemployed.'
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